Got any vacation plans? Do those plans require flying on an airplane? Buckle up, you might be in for a slightly bumpier ride than usual in the coming years.
You're probably already used to a little bit of turbulence every now and then. Sure, it's not exactly pleasant, knowing you're in a tin can tens of thousands of feet up in the air. But most of the time, this turbulence subsides and everybody in the flight proceeds as if nothing happened. Just a metaphorical 'speed bump' in the air.
But what if I told you that air turbulence is set to double – and quite possibly triple – thanks to a problem we humans have caused: Global warming.
It's only getting worse.
IMAGE: Eric Masur / Unsplash
According to Paul Williams, a professor of atmospheric science at the University of Reading in the UK, climate change is modifying turbulence, with computer simulations showing that severe turbulence "could double or triple in the coming decades."
But before we dive deeper into that, it's important to note that turbulence is split into three categories: Light, moderate, and severe.
1. Light turbulence is perfectly manageable. You'll feel a slight tug at your seatbelt, but nothing more. Even food services are operable during situations like this.
2. Things get a little dicier during moderate turbulence. When this occurs, you'll definitely feel some strain against your seatbelt, and anything that isn't properly stowed or secured might get dislodged. Walking is also a bit difficult. Flight attendants are usually told to be seated at this time.
3. Severe turbulence, on the other hand, is the worst kind. In fact, it's stronger than gravity itself. It's got the power to pin you to your seat, and if you're unlucky enough to not be wearing your seatbelt, you could very well be tossed around like a rag doll. The only thing you stand to 'win' from this is a serious injury.
In the U.S., roughly 65,000 aircraft suffer moderate turbulence every year. When it comes to severe turbulence, about 5,500 flights run into this unfortunate situation. But if Williams' computer simulations prove to be true, you might have to prepare yourself for more frequent bumpy flights.
What's more concerning, however, is the frequency of 'clear air turbulence' that was highlighted in these simulations. Unlike regular turbulence, clear air turbulence has absolutely zero visual cues for pilots to spot. No storms, no clouds. It hits without warning, and is incredibly difficult to avoid.
Between 2009 and 2018, 28 percent of flights experienced turbulence of which the flight crew had no warning, according to statistics from the U.S.-based National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Williams' predictions suggest that clear air turbulence will see a significant global increase between the year 2050 and 2080. While that's still decades ahead of us, the time to act is now – and has been for quite a while.
IMAGE: Ismail Mohamed – SoviLe / Unsplash
If reading up to this point has scared you off from air travel completely, fret not. Despite more turbulence predicted, this doesn't make air travel any less safe. In fact, it's still the safest form of transport in the world, even more than cars, trains, buses, boats, and motorcycles.
"Planes are not going to start falling out of the sky, because aircraft are built to very high specification and they can withstand the worst turbulence they can ever expect to encounter, even in the future," said Williams.
However, you will have to deal with longer durations of turbulence. On a regular transatlantic flight, the turbulence you could experience usually lasts around 10 minutes. In a few decades (and if the predictions are true), this turbulence could last anywhere between 20 and 30 minutes. Basically, you'll see the seatbelt sign switched on for much, much longer.
If there is any reassurance to get out of this, it's the fact that flight attendants account for 80 percent of turbulence-related injuries, not passengers. It makes a lot of sense, considering they're on their feet for most of the flight duration, attending to passengers' needs. If you happen to be a flight attendant reading this, I'm sorry. :(
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